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Abstract
Wildfires are expected to increase in the mountain west over the next few decades, and like many states in the region, South Dakota experiences several large wildfires each year. An open question in meteorology is how ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) affects favorable conditions leading to wildfire start, spread, and intensity in South Dakota and surrounding northern plains states. The research plan for this project was to analyze the effects that each phase of ENSO had on the conditions in South Dakota that lead to intense fires in the state. ENSO has been found to have a difference in precipitation and temperature trends during each phase, but whether or not this difference creates conditions leading to increased fire potential in the Northern Plains has been previously unknown. Understanding this is beneficial because it would allow meteorologists to better prepare a projected seasonal fire outlook and help wildland fire agencies to prepare to fight wildfires with the equipment and personnel needed. It was hypothesized that the cold phase of the oscillation would cause an increase of fires for that season due to the expected hot and dry conditions that frequently accompany La Niña years. A correlation between ENSO and wildfires was observed for either the year of the La Niña, or one year after the mature phase. The variables leading to the extreme fire weather showed small signals, which leads to the conclusion that ENSO has a small impact on fire season, but many other factors lead to fires and thus the phase of ENSO should not be taken as the sole indicator of an active fire season in South Dakota.